Archive for March, 2008
Monday, March 31st, 2008
This is my own prediction. Manhattan Real estate market is going to flounder this year. Thanks to layoffs in the Financial sector, over-build up and extreme overvaluation of the condo market. When real wages and asset prices are not in sync, one or the other needs to catch-up with reality. In this case, real estate prices have to come in sync with the real wages/employment numbers.
March 31 (Bloomberg) — New York City’s residential real estate market is showing the first signs of fallout as U.S. banks and securities firms cut the most jobs in seven years.
Manhattan apartment sales fell in January and February from a year earlier and new properties came to the market at the fastest pace since at least 2000, according to data from New York-based real estate appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. Transactions slid 6.4 percent to 3,250, while the number of condominiums, co- operatives and townhouses for sale at the end of last month climbed to 6,225, 15 percent more than at the start of the year.
“It’s very much of a concern because while the share of jobs being lost is relatively small, the income effect is large,'’ said Marisa Di Natale, senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com, based in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “Wall Street bonuses and salaries in particular have been propping up the Manhattan real estate market.'’
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ahgWx1z6LFxE
Filed under: Economy, Housing | | No Comments »
Sunday, March 30th, 2008
Not surprised to see a huge jump in the volatility in the U.S and other markets around the world. Is the high volatility at this level indicates the bottom for the markets?
Filed under: Financial Markets, Financial Statistics | | No Comments »
Friday, March 28th, 2008
This is bad for New York real estate market. This will bring a flood of new condos and co-ops into the inventory.
Check out this article posted on Bloomberg site -> Financial Layoff impact on NY Real Estate market
“This crisis is much worse than 2001 and we don’t know how long it’s going to last,'’ said Jo Bennett, a partner at executive search firm Battalia Winston International in New York. Job cuts “could be more than 100,000 in a few years.'’
Filed under: Economy, Housing | | No Comments »
Thursday, March 27th, 2008
TechCrunch is reporting that CBS is testing High Def Video content on it’s website.
Buried in the
lab’s section of the network’s Web site is a gallery of short HD clips from shows such as
Jericho,
CSI: Crime Scene Investigation and
Dexter.
TechCrunch was first to report the story and said the clips are available in H.264 format at 480p, with 720 p and 1080p coming later.
CBS has been overshadowed on the Internet in recent months by Hulu, the video portal operated by NBC Universal and News Corp. Hulu launched earlier this month and has attracted a score of content from other networks, studios, and sports leagues. Hulu has also begun testing high-definition streaming.
Filed under: Digital Media, Broadband | | No Comments »
Thursday, March 27th, 2008
This is old news, but looks pretty cool from what I read. LG has always been an innovator in the consumer electronics industry.
LAS VEGAS, Jan. 6, 2008 - LG Electronics, co-developer of the MPH™ in-band mobile digital television (DTV) system, today previewed a series of products that will support local TV stations’ plans to launch DTV broadcasts for mobile devices in 2009.
At the 2008 International CES® here this week, LG Electronics is demonstrating products that incorporate new circuitry for receiving the robust ATSC-compatible MPH (Mobile-Pedestrian-Handheld) signals. Developed by LG Electronics, its U.S. R&D subsidiary Zenith and Harris Corporation (NYSE:HRS), MPH is capable of providing robust over-the-air DTV signals to mobile, pedestrian and handheld devices.
Filed under: Digital Media, Broadband | | No Comments »
Wednesday, March 26th, 2008
Here is an interesting chart from Wall Street Journal. In this article (linke provided below), WSJ notes that the stock market is trading at levels where it was nine years ago. For example, if you invested $10,000 in the S&P index back in 2000, it will be about the same value today.
Check out the article Lost Decades on WSJ.
Filed under: Financial Markets, Financial Statistics | | No Comments »
Wednesday, March 26th, 2008
With USD falling against major International currencies on a daily basis, it is not surprising to see news like this. Qatar and U.A.E are about to break their dollar pegs. China abandoned its dollar peg in 2005.
BUENOS AIRES, March 15 (Xinhua) - Argentina and Brazil are to scrap bilateral commercial transactions in U.S. dollars and start using their own currencies from August, an official in charge of currency settlement at the Argentine Central Bank.” The free ride for the US is soon to be over. Americans will have to get its fiscal policy in order soon, or they will suffer greatly.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva reached an agreement to establish a new payment system with his Argentine counterpart Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner during his visit to Argentina in February
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/16/content_7800121.htm
Brazil’s government imposed a 1.5% tax on foreign purchases of fixed-income securities denominated in reais, to assuage the currency’s rise.
Filed under: Economy, Forex | | 2 Comments »
Wednesday, March 26th, 2008
Interesting chart. Looks like housing prices will have to trace back to its former base (120 points)
Filed under: Economy, Economy Statistics, Housing | | No Comments »
Wednesday, March 26th, 2008
From Fortune magazine March edition
Key Points from Paul Krugman’s comments on the mortgage meltdown & Housing Crisis
- Ratio of home prices to rental rates suggest that the home prices nationally got way too high
- We probably retrace most of the that, so that’s about 25% decline in overall home prices
- The current economy situation looks like the combination of 1990 and 2001, and probably bigger than both combined
- The last recession (2000-2002) officially ended after 8 months, but employment didn’t start to recover until 30 months later, so if the recession started in Jan 2008, it would mean it won’t end until July 2010
- Regarding the interest rates direction, there is a pretty good chance that we are heading to zero and there’s going to be a Japan-style ZIRP, zero-interest-rate policy
Filed under: Economy, Housing | | No Comments »
Tuesday, March 25th, 2008
A significant number of financial bloggers and experts are calling March 10’s closing low of 11,740 as the final low of the 6 month long bear market. From Barron’s cover story last weekend to Vince Farrell’s column “We’ve seen our bottom” on The street.com all marking a bottom in the bearish market. But are they right?
Consider the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average recommended stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Monday night, the HSNSI stood at minus 22.5%. Hulbert argues that this aggressively bearish bet is one of the reasons that contrarians are bullishly inclined right now. But it is not the only reason.
Barry Ritholtz, chief market startegist for Ritholtz Research, says in a moderate recession, an 85 day, 15% drop would likely be insufficient to reflect the changes in both growing and earnings.
Barrons reports that James Finucane, a 67-year-old strategist feels we are at another extrodinary low. He predicts that the recent unprecedented actions taken by Fed to offer liquidity to investment banks and to commercial banks stuck with mortgage-backed securities will culminate itself in the future. He foresees an explosive rally, with the Dow rocketing to 18,000 to 20,000 by year end. Finucane argues that financial crisis invariably yield spectacular buy points when they reach crescendos.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120615098415256845.html
Filed under: Economy, Financial Markets | | No Comments »
Tuesday, March 25th, 2008
From Fortune, March edition
Widgets are small, self-contained programs that can be plugged into a web application like a blog or social network. In the world of widgets, Slide is a giant. Built by former co-founder Levchin, Slide include hits such as Funwall, Slideshows and Top Friends. Widgets are popular with a sought-after demographic - thoise 18-to 25-year-olds who waste hours playing with the things and beaming them to their friends.
But how does these widgets help make money for advertisers? Slide’s founder Levchin claims the he’s in an unique position to measure engagement. He can mine that database of 50 million active widget users for all kinda of behavioral data. Who are these people? Who do they poke when they SuperPoke? How else do they interact? To advertisers trying to target their messages, this kinda of marketing data is gold.
The No 2 widget marker is RockYou, whose widget catalog includes SuperWall and Horoscope. Another start-up VideoEgg runs Video ads on widgets and charges 50 cents to $1 when someone interacts with them.
Continue reading this article on Fortune
Filed under: Economy, Digital Media, Web2.0 | | No Comments »
Monday, March 24th, 2008
An interesting cover story on Barron’s highlights the reasons why the markets are at the bottom.
Excerpts From Baron’s article:
One of the biggest reasons the fortunes of banks and brokers will improve is the steep yield curve. As its name implies, the curve plots the yield of all of Treasury debt, ranging from maturities of three months to 30 years. When the difference between the yield on the 10-year Treasury note and the two-year Treasury note is large, the yield curve is considered steep.
At Thursday’s close, the difference stood at 1.78 percentage points, double the 0.88-percentage-point long-term average. Last year, the difference was negative; the two-year note had a higher yield than the 10-year Treasury note.
A steep yield curve “is telling us that we’re further along in a recession and suggests the situation will be better six to 12 months from now,” says John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s Investors Service.
A steep yield curve also allows financial institutions to borrow short-term money at low rates and lend it out for longer terms at higher rates.
Filed under: Economy, Financial Markets | | No Comments »
Monday, March 24th, 2008
Reuters
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. antitrust authorities approved a proposed $4.38 billion purchase of XM Satellite Radio (NasdaqGS:XMSR - News) by Sirius Satellite Radio (NasdaqGS:SIRI - News), the Justice Department said on Monday. The deal is also being examined by the Federal Communications Commission, which is expected to follow the Justice Department’s lead. The deal would combine the only two providers of satellite radio in the United States.
XM stock is up 15% and Sirius is up 6%. This consolidation in the Satellite radio space is long over-due. This will be good for consumers.
Filed under: Digital Media, Broadband | | No Comments »
Monday, March 24th, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Seeking to mollify angry shareholders and employees, JPMorgan Chase quintupled its offer for Bear Stearns Cos. to roughly $10 a share Monday. The bank will also acquire 39.5% of Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500) by scooping up 95 million newly issued shares in an effort to ensure the deal goes through, according to a statement issued just after the U.S. stock markets opened. This part of the deal is scheduled to be completed around April 8. JPMorgan would only need another 10.5% of shareholder votes to close the merger.
Bad deal for Federal Reserve. Fed shouldn’t have gotten into this mess.
Filed under: Economy, Financial Markets | | No Comments »
Saturday, March 22nd, 2008
Interesting chart from NY Times
Filed under: Economy, Financial Markets, Economy Statistics | | No Comments »
![Freakonomics[Revised and Expanded]](/images/21xRHBWYYML.jpg "Freakonomics[Revised and Expanded]")
