Archive for February, 2009
Thursday, February 26th, 2009
Interesting stats from White House on our past budget and future projections.
BUDGET YEAR SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) AS PCT OF GDP
2008 -$459 bln -3.2
2007 -$162.0 bln -1.2
2006 -$248.2 bln -1.9
2005 -$318.3 bln -2.6
2004 -$412.7 bln -3.6
2003 -$377.6 bln -3.5
2002 -$157.8 bln -1.5
2001 $128.2 bln 1.3
2000 $236.2 bln 2.4
1999 $125.6 bln 1.4
1998 $ 69.3 bln 0.8
1997 -$ 21.9 bln -0.3
1996 -$107.4 bln -1.4
1995 -$164.0 bln -2.2
1994 -$203.2 bln -2.9
1993 -$255.1 bln -3.9
1992 -$290.3 bln -4.7
1991 -$269.2 bln -4.5
1990 -$221.0 bln -3.9
Recent budget projections:
White House, released Feb. 26:
2009 -$1,752 bln -12.3
2010 -$1,171 bln - 8.0
2011 -$ 912 bln - 5.9
2012 -$ 581 bln - 3.5
2013 -$ 533 bln - 3.0
2014 -$ 570 bln - 3.1
Filed under: Economy, Economy Statistics | | No Comments »
Tuesday, February 24th, 2009
Filed under: Economy, Financial Markets, Finance | | No Comments »
Monday, February 23rd, 2009
Interesting take on charts by Carter Worth on the Fast Money show.
Worth tell us that patterns in the stock market tend to repeat themselves. He mentions that we spent about 6 months at the top and we spent about 7 months at the 2002-03 lows. There is a presumption that we will spend about the same amount of time at this junction. And we’ve already been here for the better part of 4 months.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29331307
I was tempted to pull the S&P 500 and Berkshire Hathaway 3-year chart to compare where we are in the bottoming cycle. Both chart shows that we are at a critical juncture in the market cycle.
1) Berkshire Hathaway 3-Year chart
2) S&P 500 3-Year Chart
Filed under: Financial Markets, Trading Strategy | | No Comments »
Friday, February 20th, 2009
It’s been a while since I posted anything in my blog.
Here is a question for you. Which one gets bailed-out and/or nationalized by govt this weekend? Bank of America or Citibank?
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20090219&id=9625851
Except for Chase, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo, I have no confidence in the survival of most of the U.S financial institutions.
I made a short-term buy recommendation back in late Nov when Dow was at this level. In early January markets peaked. After Obama’s inaguration, market started tanking. This administration is making the same mistakes what the previous administration did. Handouts to the people who are foreclosing the properties because they couldn’t afford to buy the properties in the first place. Come no..now! You cannot artifically set the floor on housing prices. What goes up needs to come down. Housing prices are totally out of whack with income. We have at least 20% more downside at the national level. NYC market has just started cracking. Toll brothers condos in Brooklyn and Queens are on fire sale (if anyone is interested in living in the burroughs). Markets have no confidence in Geithner (wrong choice for Treasury Secy). We are most probably going to see new multi-year lows on all major indices. If Dow breaks 7440 tomorrow and S&P breaks 740, short the heck out of Financials and Tech. Unemployment is more like 10%. Our govt data is reporting 6% which is not correct. I think most retailers will not exist after this year (Nordstrom, JC Penny, Sears, Tiffany, Sakhs all in trouble). GM and Chrysler will go bankrupt in a few months and might be forced to merge their operations.
Good luck and play safe!
Filed under: Economy, Financial Markets, Financial Statistics, Trading Strategy, Finance, Financial Bailouts | | No Comments »
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