Vital Trends Blog

Media bias on Black Friday retail numbers

Chan — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 18:18:08 +0000

Excellent article from BigPicture blog.

As you can expect, media tends to report retail numbers based on incorrect sources. This BigPicture blog entry discusses this in detail.

Sales data for Black Friday will be touted by biased interest groups. They are invariably have an upside bias;
Survey data will be taken as the equivalent of actual sales;
Strong forecasts will be subsequently proven wrong;

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/spinning-black-friday-retail-sales/

BigPicture also notes that Master Card’s ShopperPulse data is more reliable when it comes to measuring what people spent (via their MC Credit Card). This data has proven to be more reliable than either foot traffic, surveys and other biased sources.

U.S is in recession since Dec 2007: NBER

Chan — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 18:06:01 +0000

The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that the U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007, making official what most Americans have already believed about the state of the economy .

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/081201/120108_recession.html

Another day, another bailout: Citigroup

Chan — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 14:26:29 +0000

“Treasury and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will provide protection against the possibility of unusually large losses on an asset pool of approximately $306 billion of loans and securities backed by residential and commercial real estate and other such assets, which will remain on Citigroup’s balance sheet. As a fee for this arrangement, Citigroup will issue preferred shares to the Treasury and FDIC. In addition and if necessary, the Federal Reserve stands ready to backstop residual risk in the asset pool through a non-recourse loan.

In addition, Treasury will invest $20 billion in Citigroup from the Troubled Asset Relief Program in exchange for [$27 billion of] preferred stock with an 8% dividend to the Treasury. Citigroup will comply with enhanced executive compensation restrictions and implement the FDIC’s mortgage modification program”

Citigroup pre-market futures indicate a sharp recovery from Friday’s lows. The stock is up 60% to $6. Dow and S&P futures are up as well.

Reuters: Over 100 U.S. “blue chips” now selling for under $10 a share

Chan — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 01:46:33 +0000

This is pretty spooky

Blue chips, including Citigroup (NYSE:C - News; $6.40), Alcoa (NYSE:AA - News; $8.16), Xerox (NYSE:XRX - News; $5.58), Motorola (NYSE:MOT - News; $3.44), Starbucks (NasdaqGS:SBUX - News; $7.97) and Yahoo (NasdaqGS:YHOO - News; $9.14), not to mention beleaguered automakers Ford Motor (NYSE:F - News; $1.26) and General Motors (NYSE:GM - News; $2.79).

According to S&P data, 101 is almost double the 59 companies with share prices below $10 in October 2001 when the dotcom meltdown was in full swing and almost triple the 35 sub-$10 stocks in October 1987

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081119/business_us_sp_10bucks.html?.v=1

Markets retest of Oct lows succeeded

Chan — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 18:13:59 +0000

We predicted this last month. We are seeing a W in the Candle charts. If this retest is successful today, we will aim higher. Otherwise lookout below.

Here is an excerpt from BigPicture blog.

Markets have come increasingly close to their October 10th lows. Contrary to what you may have read or heard on TV, this is precisely as it should be. Why? Major lows get retested. That is a basic tenet of market behavior, and crowd psychology. (This has been verified by a variety of studies by different technicians, economists and traders).

There are a variety of different ways to define the terms, yielding some variations, but the basic outline remains the same: All major sell offs hit a point where markets become so deeply oversold, that a rally ensues. Depending upon how deep the prior sell off is, this rally typically lasts anywhere from 3 to 6 weeks. Our work at FusionIQ shows that these snap-backs typically go for about 4 weeks and average ~24%.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/retest-of-the-october-lows/

The number of newly laid-off individuals seeking unemployment benefits has jumped to a level not seen since just after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, as companies cut more jobs in the face of a slowing economy.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081113/jobless_claims.html

Are Stocks cheap?

Chan — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:11:30 +0000

COUNTRY/INDEX	P-E RATIO
North America
Dow Jones Industrials	10.7
S&P 500 Index	11.7
Nasdaq	16.6

Canada	9.3
Mexico	9.7

Europe
Euro Stoxx 50	7.9
UK	7.3
France	7.8
Germany	9.5
Spain	7.7
Italy	7.2
Netherlands	5.7
Switzerland	17.3

ASIA
Nikkei (Japan)	11.4
Hong Kong	8.8
Shanghai	12.3
Australia	8.9
Singapore	8.2

Why Stocks Are Dirt Cheap?

Jeremy Siegel writes this on Yahoo column.

Aggregate earnings over the past year are greatly depressed by huge write-offs not only in the financial sector but in other firms. For example, Ford, GM, and Sprint, whose aggregate market value is less than 0.2% of the S&P 500 Index, lowered the S&P’s reported earnings by about

Note: We made a similar case 2 weeks ago when the market bottomed out at 8000.

VIX drops below 50 for first time since October volatility.

Tracking U.S Presidential Election 2008 Winner Obama

Chan — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 00:51:45 +0000

Nov 4th 11:13 EST - Futures markets up slightly

Nov 4th 11:00 EST - Obama projected winner
Nov 4th 10:37 EST - Electoral Votes count: 207 Obama vs 135 McCain
Nov 4th 8:30 AM EST - Markets are set to rally ahead of Election day. My prediction if Obama wins tomorrow, Dow will see 10,000 by Friday still stands.

It’s Election time

Chan — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:29:30 +0000

Currency market says much about Bush’s presidency

Chan — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 16:35:08 +0000

Currency market says a lot of about Bush’s Presidency

NASA Spacecraft To Study Boundaries Of Solar System

Chan — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 18:59:28 +0000

NASA is in the news.

The U.S. space agency launches today a space probe that will keep an eye on the violence and turbulence at the very edge of the solar system.

NASA’s Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) is due to begin its mission at Kwajalein Atoll, the largest coral atoll on the planet, where it will be launched aboard a Pegasus rocket that will be dropped from a jet.
http://www.efluxmedia.com/news_NASA_Spacecraft_To_Study_Boundaries_Of_Solar_System_26943.html